Foreigners Leaving China in Droves, a couple of comments.
In response to Shannon Brandao’s LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/shannon-brandao_china-is-getting-rid-of-all-foreigners-activity-6951412588110860288-5l3v?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web
I have a couple of comments, nitpicks really, as I like the info, just not the presentation of the video clip. I agree with most of the why, just not some of the details nor the end of foreigners in China concept in general. (Laowhy is an interesting and informative channel, and Shannon has a GREAT newsletter, BTW. This is not a critique of either of them personally.)
1. The "Golden Era" of Chinese manufacturing (for foreigners) was really 2001-2009 and tailing off slightly through 2012 and then hitting an attitudinal wall in 2017/18 and then a real cliff in 2019 with CV (this is not true for services and investment though). Speaking as someone who arrived in 1995 and who was there for 14 of the years through 2012, the narrator arrived in China relatively late and missed the golden era completely.
2. According to the Chinese census, there were approx 595K foreigners in 2010, 845K in 2020, and approximately the same number still in 2021. While many have indeed left in 2022, the numbers are likely still higher than any time prior to the last 5 years, and certainly still higher than either the 2000-09 or 2008-2017 "golden eras. Sure there are a LOT of foreigners that have left (10s of 1000s), but likely NOT the numbers that people are imagining (100s of 1000s). Depression in the West will make people rethink global moves out of China too.
3. While much of what he says is true, his tone is grating and negative, even for those us who do not consider ourselves Panda-huggers. This is unnecessary as the CCP does enough damage to its own reputation (happy about the death of Abe, for example) without foreigners choosing to fulfill the Ugly Foreigner stereotype for them. He’s dead right about the stupid racist CCP propaganda though. Kudos to him for calling it out. But I would hope that people can be devastatingly critical of China without being rude/arrogant/dismissive. I’m personally not as good as this as I should be. So we’ll give him a break since it sounds like he has had personal issues getting out.
4. Related to, but not mentioned in the video, is the the oft quoted "1/2 of Shanghai's foreigners are leaving" stat that everyone seems to be sharing on this topic. It is exaggerated greatly. The real stat is that: 1/2 of the EU foreign population that was surveyed says they are considering leaving in the next 12 months. There are stats that say that the Beijing foreign population is down about 40% from pre-Covid levels. But neither of those places has the most foreign residents (Guangdong has more than 1/2 of China's foreign pop and Yunnan is second). And just FYI, these numbers don't include HK, Macao or Taiwan "foreign" residents.
5. The “econ growth for rights” bargain hasn’t been a motivating factor in China for at least the last decade. The absorption rate of jobs necessary for new graduates (7.5%) hasn’t been met since 2007 or 2008. Hence the ramping up of nationalism since that same time. It’s better now than it was before (prior generations) is the best most people can honestly say. And that’s true. But the economy is not good right now and people aren’t revolting. Yet.
6. An additional reason why foreigners are leaving is that there is indeed a lack of jobs available for foreigners in China compared with a decade or two ago, not just in the education sector either. Enough Chinese have either foreign degrees and/or experience or quality domestic education that the demand for foreigners is not what it used to be. Couple that with nationalism and it’s not as easy for foreigners to find work anymore.
Finally, about “fast-paced.” Yes, the presented argument is racist and BS. But it’s not as completely one-sided as he makes it seem. Unlike any other place I’ve worked professionally (SK, Taiwan, HK, Vietnam, Thailand, US) work in China is 24/7, so maybe “long-paced” is better than “fast-paced.” Getting burned out in China is a real concern that foreign companies with good HR have accounted for. There are few vacations, relatively shorter weekends, and longer daily hours in China than many other countries. China is also famous for “everyone having a side hustle,” meaning that everyone seems to be working at least two jobs—that’s a hectic work environment to be sure! To that end, I personally did dissertation research on Chinese professionals in SEA (2016-2018) and to a person the locals commented on how much longer hours the Chinese worked and the Chinese commented on how “lazy” the locals were. Sure a lot of that has to do with employment expectations for expat manager-level Chinese vs. lower level locals and other factors, the lack of trust forcing Chinese to work more, and many other issues too, but the stereotype isn’t only Chinese racism (though there is a TON of that).
Just my 2 cents. Thanks for the thought-provoking post and video.
