Trying to Graduate, late news updates
News for April 13-19
This week is a double bonus! Two weeks at once! Ok, it's not really a bonus, I was late with last week's news (and yesterday's too) because I’m desperately trying to finish my dissertation this month so I can graduate in August. Sorry for the delay! Wish me luck!
Calls for free speech in China, to help prevent the next pandemic, likely to go unheeded. The unfortunate aspect about this is that both people are not asking for a new regime, they simply want more free speech to help protect their own lives. (Of course, it’s sad too that they aren’t pushing for a new regime either.)
CV fears seem to be significantly overblown. This is not a political statement on my part, I’m just saying that the “cure” is going to be worse than the highest rates of death predicted for the disease.
One of the biggest fears of the US ceding its role as world leader in organizations like the UN and WHO is that China is the one filling the vacuum—Whatever your qualms with US leadership, China is orders of magnitude worse with its record on HR and lack of freedoms and transparency. This is another good article that just doesn’t take the final step. It lists out 4 specific ways that China infiltrates American life, but doesn’t discuss int’l bodies, which, the recent debacle with the WHO has shown, is deadly relevant to our daily American lives. The CCP has, for at least 2 decades, been investing in international bodies—not just governmental organizations, but anything that sets global standards.
China says that its economy shrunk by 6.8% in Q1. Thailand is saying its economy shrank by a similar 6.7%. Both numbers are likely lower than they really are. One of the ways that China is trying to recover is to fake export certificates.
Does China’s propaganda work? Yes and no. It works to a large degree within China because there are few other options and nationalism is whipped up to accompany stories that otherwise wouldn’t have as much traction. But with fear, personal risk and other information available, it’s not nearly as effective. China is able to sow disinformation abroad, but there are many alternative sources of info and so their message isn’t nearly as effective. But, when they can coopt organizations like the WHO, they become much more powerful and deadly.
What happens next, in a destroyed economy? China recovered first and many of its companies (SOE’s, National Champions, et al) are going to get support from the govt to again ‘go out’ and buy up strategic resources around the world. There is a significant security risk that needs to be recognized and confronted head-on.
Decoupling from China will come at a price. And many US companies don’t want to pay—and, be honest, neither do many consumers. Most people are angry at China right now, but how much more are we willing to pay for consumer goods (most of Walmart and Target) and even electronics and autos?
If there is a winner of the CV crisis, it’s Taiwan. They did a kick-ass job protecting themselves and showed up China, WHO, and most of the world in the process.
This article focuses on a week that China sat on data in Jan. And that’s the hard date when the world now knows that Beijing knew something and chose not to share it. But other reports show that they (at least MDs in China) knew something was up as early as Nov and maybe even had inklings of issues as early as Sept.—at least that is the earliest dates for some genome tracing of the virus. I think that giving China a pass from Nov-Jan is a mistake.
The rise of nationalism and xenophobia in China is alarming, but not unprecedented nor surprising. This is the line that they CCP has used historically—gin up an external enemy to cover up for attacks on or failings by the CCP.
Australia has been on the front lines with China—tied so closely economically, and with 100K’s of Chinese students and immigrants—it has been a flashpoint for much of the world’s interactions with China. Waga Waga has now ended its sister city relationship with Kunming and Beijing is none too happy about it.
It seems to me that the brokerage business (money management and global investment banks) runs in a parallel universe from the rest of us. It doesn’t ever question government morals or ethics, it never looks at Human Rights, it ignores people and pandemics because its job is making (up) money—and that seems to supersede politics and even humanity. How is Social Responsibility a requirement for almost all other companies but not the largest ones in the world?
And finally, China is banning online gaming and chatting with foreigners. If China’s internet wasn’t already, for most in the PRC, just a Chinese intra-net, it’s now even more so. Like other industries and organizations that are in China, this will force int’l companies to either create new China-only entities, or partner with local Chinese companies, create China only games, and or adjust apps and software for the China-specific market.
News for April 6-12
This is a great timeline of the Wuhan outbreak with emphasis on East Asia.
It looks like decoupling might be for real this time. I guess cover-ups of plague-esque diseases will push people over the edge. But it certainly won’t be easy.
Since 2009, China’s push for global leadership seemed to be moving forward apace. But the reaction from many nations and people is now is that China is not trustworthy. On the heels of the ZTE and Huawei issues last year, China’s position has slipped significantly.
Related int’l relations with China in the last two months:
US to cut HK/China out of high-speed internet cables.
Samsung ends mobile phone production in China
Japan to fund companies to leave China
US companies definitely leaving China. And they may get some govt support to do so as well.
US DOJ still focusing on Chinese espionage
China pretends to take int’l pressure seriously but continues to do the same things once they’ve made some public comments—stop domestic sales of animals but offer tax breaks for their export.
Companies in China are hurting. Badly. Some think that Luckin is just the tip of the economic-collapse iceberg. (many more links too.
Unintended consequences attend success—so many Chinese students go abroad for school that they no longer need to adapt to local cultures and peoples. They live in Chinese bubbles (language, food, friends, media, news), similar to many Chinese temporary expats (not migrants). And, in relation to the current CV situation, many are reconsidering their options about returning.
There is so much economic carnage from the “cure” to the CV outbreak that there will be no way that the govt can bail out everyone. Not in China, or the US. And that’s why markets are going to get nervous and banks panicky.
To be honest, the economy is scary. But the reactions by the CCP are as scary or worse. So. Many. People. Are. Disappeared. Sick and wrong.
And equally as disgusting is the int’l cover-up media campaign by the CCP to portray the CCP as the global savior.
There has never been good data from China, but the question is how much is political, Chinese data seems to correspond with political events, how much of it is a lack of transparency or corruption?