If you don't believe China, you're either a denier or actively spreading the disease.
I'm not going to link to the articles but the CCP is blaming both a US military woman and/or Italy for the source of the outbreak and at the same time demanding gratitude from everyone for saving the world. CCP is working overtime coming up with those whoppers.
The PAP, Chinese special security forces are in HK This news, combined with the recent expulsion of US journalists from both China AND HK/Macao reinforces the increasing realization that HK as we knew it is no more. One China two systems is, for most intents and purposes, dead. Though it will probably take another serious financial or legal event to see the rest of the MNCs leave, HK’s special status as an independent commercial gateway to the PRC is likely over.
If you’re not reading the FP China Brief by James Palmer, you’re missing out on a lot of good analysis. For example, Chinese students at US universities are leaving in droves. This means both serious troubles for these students trying to finish their education from or in China, but it also means that unis in the US that rely on foreign student tuition are going to suffer. Decoupling means that xenophobia on both sides will continue rising. Also, if there is any silver lining it’s the idea that unis in the US will hopefully be less beholden to Chinese money (via Confucian Institutes and/or students).
In a related note, there is a lot of blame being put on the US administration for doing what China could not—force Chinese scholars back to China. But beyond the headlines, a careful reading shows that the concerns of the FBI and NIH are significant and often ignored when blame is being shoveled out. Are Chinese academics returning to China? Yes they are, in larger numbers than ever before. But those numbers don’t deny the covert espionage nature of the Thousand Talents Program run by the CCP to profit from foreign research. That US universities didn’t do their job in policing Chinese scholars (and others) does not deny the individual dishonesty of many academics who were paid well to double dip and/or send classified info back. Should the US do much much ore to keep the globe’s best academics here? Of course. But that doesn’t mean that we should ignore the TTP or it’s effects on US R&D.
Just a couple of years back I was advised by another Anthropology professor that if I wanted lots of easy funding, I just needed to make sure that my research somehow linked to the BRI. Now, while there are still many active projects, most are not what they were originally expected to be and many don’t exist at all. Additionally, there are growing complaints at home (in China) that too much money is being spent on foreigners and not enough on domestic problems. Covid-19 will definitely exacerbate those calls to stay home. The increasing int’l concern that China is not a team player will add to the difficulties beyond China’s immediate neighbors.
I study Chinese MNCs outside of China, and I can tell you that they move as there are monies offered by the CCP and opportunities opened up by Chinese (money) diplomacy. This isn’t to say that there are not millions of SME entrepreneurs, there are. But the big boys work with the state and the state paves the way for their int’l business.
Another picture essay of closed down cities and sites across the world.
But maybe the most distressing news is the disinformation campaign being waged by China—they are both claiming that they are saving the world AND that the US started the plague. What kind of evil do you have to be to finance a PR campaign when people are dying across the globe?! There is a real fight for the hearts and minds of the world’s population. Do what you can to beat back the CCP propaganda. This doesn’t mean you need to support one faction or another in the US—just make sure that China doesn’t win with their lies.
And it’s not just a war of words either, China has threatened the US medical supply chain over language it doesn’t like from the White House. Again, how evil can one be to threaten the lives of innocent civilians in the midst of a pandemic?! Sickening.
And it’s not just foreigners that the CCP is trying to brainwash. Their domestic efforts are increasingly leading to physical punishments and arrests at home.
Spent the AM today talking with another China hand that is still working on supply chain management with China—He’s back up and working after the last two months of time off. But he says that it’s been increasingly difficult for others to get started as so much of the Alibaba/Amazon supplier pages are just filled with garbage. “You’re never going to beat China on price.” There is just no way that you’re going to accept the slim margins that the Chinese traders can survive on. They are better at providing similar products at lower prices than manufactures in the US will ever be. With the business model so successful for so many years now (and the size of the domestic China market), there is a real disincentive for Chinese companies to design or innovate for foreign markets.
Two versions of the same story—China is to blame and it is NOT politically incorrect to say it! I couldn’t agree more. This isn’t just pointing fingers. This requires a recognition of what the CCP is and a rethinking of not just global political relationships but also supply chains and education and travel too.
This is a very interesting piece discussing China’s role in the WHO—noting that China controls bodies that control budget and other voting powers, but actually donates very little to WHO (and other) budgets. Thus it is outsized in its influence on WHO decisions. Also WHO is a government organization, meaning that it (naively/ignorantly/politically) never questions the numbers that it receives from other government organizations. It needs China’s future support and so will not say anything negative about China and will continue to ignore Taiwan.
China's economy is in bad shape.
I really only think that 3 of these 5 are important—the disruption to supply chains, the increase in “smart city” tech (AKA government surveillance), and the massive increase in teleconferencing—everyone from elementary schools to global businesses is now using Zoom on a daily basis. 5 tech centered changes from CV-19.
These two PWC and BBC articles are both interesting and likely to have been written before CV-19 (and it seem to me like the BBC piece is based on the PWC report?). Which means that they’ll likely change somewhat if they are re-released in 6-8 months. For one, by the end of 2020 the Chinese economy is clearly not nearly going to be as strong or as globally connected as I think the authors are currently basing their analysis on. Second, I’ve worked in and with China for 25 years now, despite the increased number of Chinese that have studied overseas and speak some English (still staggeringly small % overall) China is still amazingly insular and domestically focused. Chinese individuals and products may indeed be global, but the attitude, customs, outlook, and future are decidedly not.
I do agree that it’s likely that China, India, and SEA will be the largest economies in the world in 2050, I don’t agree that Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, or even India or Russia will be the “superpowers ruling the world.” And, to be honest, I have real doubts about the Chinese miracle being sustainable or its numbers being anywhere close to real.