Red Shirts and Business as Usual

The protests in BKK have put the Thai government and the Thai people in an awkward position.  The protests are no longer about if the government will change.  Rather they are about when will the govt step down, how will it come about, and what will Thailand do afterward.The reality is that the Red Shirts have won.  Like it or not, they have been in the streets too long and have too many people shutting down too much of the city to be physically moved or cajoled out.  The government has ordered them out, has issued summons for arrest of the leaders and still they fill the streets and shut down multiple shopping malls, hotels and intersections.The govt looks both weak and indecisive even though they have the law on their side.  They probably have about ½ of the populace on their side and business leaders are putting pressure on them to do something too.  But they have done nothing.But to be fair, the govt have few if any choices left to them.  They can use force and push out the Red SHirts and then have a full scale riot on their hands—this will garner support from people on the fence and be condemned by all the int’l press and foreign govts.Or they can negotiate—which just means that the Red Shirts get more and more leverage the longer they can hold out.The military doesn’t want to step in either.  This is evidenced by the fact that there are NO police or military on the streets at all (police offices near the protests are closed!).  Even though there is a State of Emergency in effect, laws specifically regarding mass assemblies have been breached and there have been more than 40 bomb threats in the last 3 weeks—even injured policemen--there is NO security presence visible at all in the main protest area (Radjaprasong Dist.).So if the military aren’t going to stop the protests will they force a coup?They are stuck here too.  If they force a new govt on the people then they’ve simply recreated the same problem they are facing now—a non-elected government that the people do not accept.This is a crisis of faith in the system, not just a partisan political move at this point.  The Thai people have to choose: if the government is dissolved and a new election occurs, will they accept democracy regardless of whom is elected or will the next government also face mass protests from the opposition?If it was just the position of the PM in Thailand that was in question this might be just an academic question.  For example, Military kicks out Abhisit and sets up a temporary govt for 2-3 months to set up new elections and then the democratic vote ends the problem.  But it’s much more serious than that.It is no secret that corruption in Thailand (and China, and Vietnam, etc., etc.) is a historical and cultural problem that affects not just governments but businesses and everyday life of almost everyone living in it’s wake. The Thai courts, the military, the freedom of press, the relationships/influence of business and powerful families are all in question.So what if the government is replaced but the courts are still controlled by the military?  So what if a new PM is elected democratically if he again has big business ties (as Thaksin did)?  So what if Thailand gets a new government but a large enough percentage of the population decides they’re not going to accept it no matter what (and protest until the choice is, again, force or absolving yet another )?Regardless of who wins this round Thai’s have some ethical decisions to make about what's next for the land of smiles.  And these decisions will specifically affect business as well as politics, hopefully for the better.On a lighter note, the best piece of political commentary I've ever heard came from a speech given by a UDD leader yesterday.  In talking about policies that look good on the surface he said (Using the word for transvestite as the personal pronoun) "It may look pretty, but until you see which bathroom it walks into you don't really know what it is."And I bought a great shirt t00.  It says: "Have you gagged-down-like-a-dog enough yet?"  Very vulgar Thai verb for eat that you don't use for people.Also, the Red Shirts were the most polite group of protesters I've ever seen.  They offered me food, drinks and a place to sit and listen (relative close to the stage).  I must have had polite conversations with 10-15 different people attending the rallies last night--all from BKK (as opposed to the afternoon folk which are mostly bussed in from the provinces and paid around 65B/day)--to a person they were interested in what I understood and hoped that I would support their cause.  But they weren't pushy about it.Finally, just by chance I ran into a buddy from grad school who was also watching the protests.  What are the odds?!  Two Americans, that speak Thai, who went to school together, in the midst of a crowed of more than 10,000 people, at night, run into each other!