Remind me again, when exactly does the Asian Century start?
I’m firmly ensconced on the fence when it comes to China and it’s future—I love my family and my friends here but can’t imaging a more amoral environment to work in. I am so grateful to be here and to still have business in the current economy, but working here is dangerous, unhealthy and difficult. I see the market growing incredibly but think that the bubble is scary-huge already. 8% GDP growth is amazing, but the current plan of government spending and exports isn’t sustainable. So, knowing where I stand, you’ll understand why I say it’s rare that I find multiple articles that I think are really well written (in terms of perspective and research) and also immediately valuable for use in business and/or personal investment or planning. The two links below are both.Long time readers will also know that I doubt that the China is the next “superpower.” But I do completely agree with and believe that China should and will be the largest economy on the planet—just getting 1.5 billion people to a respectable level of education and income will demand that it be so—the world just needs to get used to that. But China is not there yet, as this FP article points out. And there are many issues (increasing poverty, decreasing education) that have been getting worse not better in the last 20 years; hence my uncertainty about China’s future. The combination of so many factors leads me to the conclusion that there are serious troubles ahead for China. For the sake of my family and business (and other people too) I hope that I’m wrong.If you’ve read my posts on the economic situation on the blog and are again thinking “man, this guy just can’t say anything good about the Chinese economic miracle and the fact that it’s the only growing economy on the planet” then you need to read both these articles and some of the other books that balance the China-as-world-savior hype. I’m not saying you should subscribe to the China’s-going-down-in-flames perspective, I don’t; cautious pessimism is more of what I would call my attitude—which I find prudent for doing business here. But as more info comes out, an increasing number of people in a wide variety of business and political sectors are seeing a big crash coming too.Remember when you read numbers on China—there is absolutely no transparency here. Not in the government, not in public companies, not in private companies, not in tax records, not in corporate power distribution. Nowhere. So everything you read, you have to question both the source and the motive of the source. Further, the terminology used by Chinese and then translated to into English equivalents are often misleading as the baggage/meaning in the English is not necessarily the meaning in China and sometimes completely different from the Chinese.And finally, while the US and China are sitting down together this week--the Chinese are (rightly) asking the US what the hell is up with the "stimulus" package that inflates both long term US debt and the current deficit?! But the US is asking the right questions too--how can the Chinese government continue it's stimulus if the world doesn't recover to pre-crash levels of consumer spending? Answer? They can't.