Three Weeks in China—Change is the Only Constant.

Back from almost three weeks in China and I’m still trying to digest all of the change in the country. Change is indeed the only constant.

China is now quiet and clean. That’s good, but it’s not great. Sure the streets are wonderfully different from the smog-filled death-mazes of the past. Part of that is due to a more “civilized” society over the last decades and also huge government support for EVs. But it’s also indicative of the slow economy. Another part of it is because China is turning middle-aged and slowing down. I was amazed at how “old” Shanghai seemed in terms of how many middle to older people I interacted with daily. Shenzhen before 2012, and in 2016-19 when I was working/researching there, was overwhelmingly a 20-something’s town. Not Shanghai, not now.

This was my first trip back to the mainland since 2019 and the economy was noticeably slower and there were no foreigners. Not big news, I know. But seeing this firsthand was weird. After living in China for 15+ years and visiting/working there 4-5x for months at a time until the fall of 2019, it was shocking to see a post-CV Chinese world. This trip was much more like my first visit in 1995 when everyone wanted to watch me and take pictures (if they had a camera). I was mobbed by people on Tai Shan who wanted a photo with me—I was the only foreigner who climbed the mountain and the only person in shorts and a t-shirt. Everyone else was Chinese and in winter coats. (It was a balmy 60 degrees, perfect for a vigorous hike).

There are many empty shops and business buildings. Sure, premium space in downtown areas is still valuable, but entire business buildings in multiple locations around Shanghai were partially empty or completely vacant. Shops along the streets were closed too. And these, of course, are just the places that I visited (the Hongqiao, Xuhui, Pudong, and a couple of other districts). But there were enough to be noticeable in every district that I visited. Ditto Suzhou, Nanjing, and Tai’an. The usually crowded sidewalk spaces in front of real estate offices were empty—as were the offices. 2-3 people max in what were previously ant-hills of activity.

In the Pudong airport, gates 58-90, there were 4 flights on Saturday PM (I was there from 4-8pm). That’s almost 30 empty gates!! The Double Golden Week may have been relatively good for domestic travel, but the international flights and people just are not back (yet?). The number of flights is at about 50% of pre-CV, and they’re all full! But I’m just not seeing the foreigners like I used to. (More flights between the US and China have been approved on both sides and hopefully, the numbers will increase; they’re adding 20+ weekly flights starting later in Nov. according to China Daily.)

My university confirmed my feelings about this. They told me that they just can’t get foreign teachers to come to China anymore. “They’re all scared of China. Even the teachers who have come here for 10 years or more don’t want to come back.” They mentioned to me specifically that generally the only “foreigners” they can get to come back now are ethnic Chinese. In addition, there are no students from “Western countries” currently at the university.

My nicely decorated university office in Shanghai.

The new China visa options should help this. But there is a long way to go to get back to “normal,” if that’s even possible. The US State Dept says that in Spring 2023 there were about 350 American students studying in China, down from over 3,000 before CV (compared to over 300,000 Chinese studying in the USA). State Department also issued a travel warning, so don’t get your hopes up.

My classes consisted of 76 junior-level students. 60 Chinese women, 15 Chinese men, and 1 Russian woman. Only the Russian had any work experience. Only the Russian woman was not 20 years old. None had ever been to Hong Kong. Only 3 Chinese students had ever been to another country (S.Korea, Japan, Malaysia). Most admitted they were either concerned about job options after graduation or already planning on graduate school, specifically to postpose looking for work, “until the economy gets better.”

Other foreign profs are telling me that the gender imbalance is dissimilar to other schools only in degree. In general, women are both the majority and the better students as well. And they are getting hired in similar or greater numbers than men, depending on the industry. But they are not being promoted at the same rates, and this is likely to continue, not get better, as the CCP promotes a more traditional Confucian (read paternalistic) value set, emphasizing the baby-make capacity/responsibility of women.

Professionally, this means that the best and brightest are not being promoted and will look to foreign companies (countries) for greater opportunities. Socially, this means that there are going to be fewer and fewer women who are going to be interested in marrying (women usually marry access or up, not down, the social hierarchy)—the exact opposite of what the CCP is hoping for. My guess is we’ll see an increase in the number of Chinese women applying for foreign grad schools and a continued decrease in marriages overall, but likely an increase in Chinese women marrying non-Chinese men.

The students were bright and willing to talk, but still afraid to be wrong. This was the issue I had 30+ years ago when I was teaching in Chongqing. This came up so many times in class discussions that this past month I devised a test in class and gave the students two options and asked them to pick a side. More than 60 of the 76 students took the middle ground of “both” instead of the either-or that I specifically asked for. Additionally, strategic thinking in general was a new concept and applying it to their own careers was, in their own words, something “we have never done before.”

University Students in Shanghai.

It was interesting to me to see China coming into the exercise and outdoors-lifestyle economy while at the same time still clinging to the ‘white is beautiful’ complexion standard. While the West is andorgynizing, the Chinese youth are working out and fashions are distinctly gendered (product of the “no sissy men” CCP policy?). On a side note, every single Chinese man wears black and women are almost exclusively in whites and pinks. Don’t know if this is part of “cadre style” or something else. Also, smoking is still a major part of men’s social life. But now Chinese men are smoking long and extremely thin cigarettes. Like the petite cigarettes that were sold to women in the West in the past.

WeChat and Alipay now allow for foreign credit cards to be used on their apps in China and it’s a HUGE convenience. So much better than trying to get people to take cash and buy things for your digitally like I had to do in 2018-19. Also, you can get a temporary SIM card for your phone with just a passport. You can buy a data plan for 2 weeks or a month which makes downloading websites/menus to use digital payments so much easier! 5G is ubiquitous, even if foreign websites are still completely blocked.

Having said that there are a couple of significant qualifications. First, there is a 1000Y a day limit on foreign credit cards and you can’t transfer money to private individuals either. Foreign credit card transactions are limited to transport (trains, subways, Didi, etc.), food, and hotels. However, I spoke with several foreigners who had issues getting permission to register for hotels. They just can’t seem to get the last mile completed. I had to physically go to the train station and buy tickets with cash because C-Trip and WeChat pay wouldn’t let me buy a single high-speed train ticket online. I lucked out and traveled to a low-demand city during off hours. I don’t know how you’d manage otherwise.

Speaking of tech, Bidu is shit. There is no other way to say it. English responses are complete trash and the Chinese responses are so biased as to make anything but the most basic request unusable in most situations.

Educated people do not want to talk about the economy/politics, but Didi/taxi drivers, on the other hand, absolutely do! They either complain about how the economy is “his” fault or how it’s the US’s fault. University and business people that I spoke with were shocked that the taxi drivers were willing to engage me about political issues. Only once and then quietly and with much respect and a little trepidation, I was told by some cohorts about the death of Premier, Li. They said most people in China don’t even know yet, but they wanted to make sure that I wasn’t the only one who didn’t know after the news got out later that day while I was in class. This conversation was prefaced with the caveat that “we shouldn’t talk about politics, but it doesn’t look like we can avoid this one.”

On the top of Taishan after a 2.5 hour climb.