Sourcing in Tough Economic Times–Details!
Posted on May 15th, 2009 by David Dayton
China Success Stories asked me to flesh out the outline of the Global Sources presentation that I posted a week or so ago on this blog. They’ve split it up into two parts and posted the first half yesterday. Here is part one. Part two comes out next week–I’ll post an update here when it’s available.
Despite the recent numbers (and the recent posts here on the blog) I think that I am honestly more optimistic than I sounded in the piece. Again, context matters, and the presentation was for new buyers coming into China for the first time–it was a cautionary tale meant to encourage homework and due diligence before investment.
Enjoy!
In sequence:
“If you had less than 30% of your foreign exchange students and over seas professionals returning home, would that be a good thing or a bad thing?”
It’s a bad thing as the numbers show ; most of that educated and prospering elite stays abroad contributing nothing to their fatherland, not even lip service. The kids grow up as natives of the country they grew up in and may take a passing interest in the old country, but that too doesn’t last.
“(W)hy are an overwhelming majority of Chinese who leave NOT coming back?”
I’ll take the common answers at face value which are a) the parents want a better life for their children defined by better education not based on rote memorization and stifled enquiry, b) a higher standard and higher quality of living, and c) a civil society in all aspects of the word.
“Or can they actually do something about North Korea?”
No, they can’t do a thing about North Korea, but who can? Nothing to do but wait for the implosion.
“How many people in (pick your home country) can name 10 Chinese brands and know where to buy them?”
Nolo contendre.
“First, is this ability to sell volume but not successfully create brand awareness good for China? Does moving tons and tons of goods with a reputation for bad quality in the world market help any brand from China? What’s the general opinion of anything “made in China” in or out of China?”
No, no and for right now “cheap and bad”.
“Is this a sustainable business model—will these unprofitable brand names be around in 20 years?”
Unprofitable but government funded brand names will last as long as the government has the funding and will to support the losers. This is not a capitalist business model whereby corporations are funded by shareholders but China is not a capitalist economy.
“So then third, which of these companies could be “successful” or at least recognizable without direct government ownership/financing (which is not the same as tax breaks that all major brands get from their home countries)? And then doesn’t imply that companies from China really are “made in China” and deserve the bad rap?
I dunno about the first, but China can make quality products as evidenced by private firms local and foreign but popular consumer perception is, again, Chinese products are cheap and bad. This perception can change if warranted by higher quality products, the same way that perceptions changed towards Japanese products in the 60′s, Taiwan products in the 80′s and Korean products in the 90′s. It can also be lost by poor quality as the US is witnessing.
“And fourth, which of these companies are leaders in R&D or innovation in their fields? The implication being, can sales of follow on products alone sustain high international rankings or recognition?”
I’m not competent to answer the first but , yes, sales volume of follow-on products can sustain high international rankings and recognition. Hell, a high and profitable sales volume excuses a host of ills.
“(S)o who knows?!”
Well, no one really knows, but the Chinese example of huge state-owned enterprises which size dwarfs privately-funded rivals in the competition for resources has not been disproven as practical. The largest, traditional companies like the US air carriers are giving way in size to these state behemoths which need not always profit to survive, to employ, and to project the nation’s influence.