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Thai Economic News…Worse Than Expected…ouch!

Worse than expected?  That must be really bad!

Really, with all the bad news about the world economy lately, how could anyone be surprised by bad economic numbers from anywhere at this point?  The numbers out of Thailand are indeed “dismal” and the fact that things are going to get worse before they get better is certainly no trivial matter.  Quite depressing, to be honest.  Why?  Because I think that a degree of the drop in the Thai numbers didn’t need to happen.  Much of the pain is certainly due to the world wide wipe out.  But a good percentage is self inflicted.

“This my thinking:”

First, Thailand is good at hard-drives, trucks and crafts/home furnishings (among other industries)—these three specific industries that are all but dead right now because of a lack of $ in export markets.

Some of Thailand’s other major advantages (low tariffs, educated workforce, good infrastructure) will not entice new orders all by themselves either.  So these industries are not going to recover until after you see recover in other regions first.

Second, agriculture is Thailand’s export leader.  Regional economic depression means that orders for exotic fruit are going to be down.  The fact that there were rice shortages last year (poor harvests) means that Thailand (and Vietnam and others) held onto their rice exports instead of selling them thus lowering the export numbers.

Third, the Tourism industry, which (I think) is second to agriculture in the Thai economy, is absolutely dead right now.  There just are not any more western tourists (or Chinese) going to Thailand right now.  I suppose that this could be seen as a good thing if some of the sex-tourism industry dries up.

A subset of, and increasing large part of tourism and the domestic economy is medical services (medical tourism).  Obviously, anything elective (lasic, tummy tucks, eyelid folds, boob jobs and sex changes) are going to be on the back burner when people are unemployed.

Fourth, Banking/finance and logistics services are hurting as banks have no money or are not lending and orders are down all across Asia (and everywhere).

Fifth, even before the economic downturn, Thailand was not a low-cost leader in ASEAN or Asia any more.  Vietnam and Cambodia have cheaper labor, as does China.  Hong Kong and Singapore have busier ports, better banking services and more western logistic headquarters.

I think that for 20 years now Thailand’s position has been a question.  Are they focused on Agriculture and tourism or are they a banking and logistics hub?  In the ‘90’s they actively presented themselves as the banking hub for mainland SEA, and with the lack of development in the other regional countries they are that kind of by default. They have a small but quality electronics sector, but they are by no means a world leader (except for one hard-drive plant).  Ditto for most other manufacturing capabilities.  But they are better in most than their close regional counterparts.  And they often benefit from reactionary anti-Chinese sentiments.

Even though we started SRI in Thailand, within one year we had to move to China just to compete—in terms of price, production times and diversity of opportunity.  As I’ve said before, Thailand with 66 million people often can’t even compete with Guangdong Province with 90 million.  All things being equal, I’m more worried about political stability in Thailand than I am in China.  And that’s saying something.  Which bring me to…

Finally, the self-inflicted wounds.  The Thais didn’t help themselves in the PR department last year.  ’08 was basically a disaster year for the Kingdom.  Boarder war with Cambodia, continued bombings in the south, foreigners arrested for stupid books, international magazines banned, a PM canned for a cooking show, kangaroo courts, Thaksin running all over the world, and the stupid protesters that shut down the airport for a week.   If you wanted to scare away business this would be the perfect formula.

And they haven’t learned their lesson yet.  Now it’s the Red Shirts that are going to do the same thing the yellow shirts did (ok, they’ve stopped short this time).  What’s worse is that there are almost weekly reports of new arrests for lese majeste and large political protests threatening to do the “same thing” as the last protests that shut down the airport.

Side Note: This color thing has really gotten out of control the last few years.  Before blue and yellow were just nice ways of enjoying a holiday and supporting the king/queen.  Now, the wrong colors can get you beat up (if you’re Thai) or mocked/questioned (if you understand the Thai around you).

What’s really a shame is that the once tolerant edge of Thai culture is being worn down.  True, Thai’s are still GREAT (more than they should be) to most foreigners.  But no longer can you rationally have a discussion about politics with business people over lunch.

Last time I was there (a month ago) it was so sensitive and so in-your-face that even discussions about the economy were difficult because of the political overtones.

I have a friend that can’t even read the book The King Never Smiles in his own house because his wife (Thai) would get offended.  I don’t say this to bash her, just to point out that the obsession with the king (and really all things political nowadays) is really affecting relationships in Thailand on many many levels.

And, in news that will certainly make world stock markets rise in expectation, Thailand and Lao opened a boarder train and Lao and Vietnam opened cross-boarder money exchange (classic communist news piece–no news whatsoever, just names of officials)!  Don’t hold your breath for the SEA version of the EU though.

I joke with people all the time that Thailand is a great place to vacation but a lousy place to do business.  We still do work there, but, to be honest, it’s usually when we can’t find what we need in China, Taiwan or Vietnam.  Sad but true.

At least the fishing is still good.

Violence in Context

This is a follow up to the Post QC Blog where I said that we’d experienced some violence in Dongguan.

First, STOP writing to tell me “See! China is doomed by social unrest.”  And “China’s a hellhole.”  This is not true, this is not what I meant when I shared a “security note.”

Second, STOP writing to tell me that I “just hate China.  Stop sharing stories like this that are just B***S***.”  Every single story I share here is true.  Because you read it out of context does not make my experiences any less true.

This is what I said:

Second, a security note.  Two other people (who shall remain nameless), while in a different part of Dongguan today, saw a group of people on the side of the road hack another person to death (at least they think he died) with a machete.   They kept on driving, sped up even, to get out of there as quickly as possible.

If you have money or are alone I would highly recommend that you DO NOT go out at night in any of the industrial areas outside of Shenzhen.  This would include Songgang, Dongguan, Longgang, Bao’an, Guanlan, Shiyan, Huizhou and other areas with tons of (unemployed) migrant workers and not a lot of policing or economic development.

I’ve seen fights, I’ve seen people get robbed and beaten, I’ve seen a woman and child get run over by large dump trucks, I’ve even seen a dead body on the street (at least I think it was dead), I’ve had family tell me about kidnappings they’ve seen, I’ve had family robbed at knife point and I’ve been pick-pocketed numerous times myself.  I’ve had clients tell me about huge gang fights they’ve see while making side excursions in shopping malls!  I even chased down and dragged to the police station two guys who tried to steal my bike once.  But I’ve never seen anything like this before.

You need to make sure that being here is really worth it for you.  And if you are staying here, you need to take the security threat seriously.  The risk is increased with more and more unemployed people loitering around.

It’s sad to me that an honest side comment on danger—meant to be a simple warning—gets all the attention at a time where there should be much more focus on other issues (QC, Finance, general economy, etc).  Some people are now using my experiences to justify their description of Dongguang as a “hellhole” (comments on Fool’s Mt).  Let me explain the situations and all the events so that you, who are using this to claim the social destruction, can calm down a bit.

First, I am honestly afraid of living in China for an extended period of time.  But it’s not a hellhole.  I’m much more scared of the traffic and the poison food than I am of getting robbed/killed.  Honestly, I was much more scared of getting killed while driving in South Chicago in ’98 with Utah plates (Jazz/Bulls NBA Finals) on my car than I am of violence in Dongguan.

Second, not all of the events that I listed were in Dongguan and not all of them are this year and not all of them were even in Mainland China.  I’ve been here, in SZ, for 7 and in Asia for almost 20 years now and I’ve seen a lot of stuff.  Here are the details with dates/places so there is no misunderstanding.

  • Hacking on the street—Monday, Feb 2, 2009.
  • Fights on the streets—Chongqing ’96, Bangkok ’98, Gaoxiong ’99, Shenzhen ’04, Songgang ’05, Shenzhen ’07.
  • Robberies and beatings—Taizhong ’00, Shenzhen ’05, Songgang ‘06
  • Attacked by guys with a pipe—Jiayi ‘00
  • Dead body–BKK ’91, Guangzhou ’07
  • Woman get run over—Taipei ’01,
  • Woman and baby get run over—Xiamen ‘06
  • Child getting hit by a hit and run driver–BKK ’08
  • Kidnappings that family saw—Dongguang ‘08
  • Family robbed at knife point—Guangzhou ‘02
  • Pick pocketed—Shenzhen 3 times in 7 years here, once in Taiwan, once in Chongqing.
  • Mall brawl—Louhu ‘06
  • Bike fiasco—Shenzhen ‘05

Finally, you can see that it’s not all Dongguan.  It’s not all Mainland China.  And it not all this last couple of months.  So yes, be careful, but don’t see the end of the world in this (in the US stock market, maybe, but not in Dongguan).  The violence is certainly bad here but it’s NOT getting worse, from my perspective.  And it’s NOT worse in Dongguang compared to other industrial areas either.  Unemployment is bad now and it’s always been dangerous in the outskirts of Shenzhen; I dare say it’s risker now, but I’ve not personally seen a big change in the last year.  Hong Kong news has been reporting things like this for almost 20 years now.

I’m just saying: Be Careful.

Fake Money

This is my collection of fake RMB (click photo for a larger image).

All of these bills/coins I’ve been passed in the course of regular transactions.  So the question is–how in the world did I get a fake 100?!  (It’s the largest bill available so it’s never given as change.)  The only place that you can get 100RMB bills is the bank/ATM.  This tells me that if you can get the money printed and out of your factory you’ve got a good chance of getting away with it since even the banks aren’t diligent enough to pull the fakes out of circulation; which the guys in this article (in Chinese, sorry) about a counterfeit RMB bust in Huizhou couldn’t do.  Good pic’s even if you don’t speak Chinese.

But having said that, have you ever spent money anywhere in China (street food stalls and taxis are the exception) that they didn’t have a machine to check the money?  I’m sure that I was passed these in taxis at night, at least the 50 and the 20.  So if everyone is checking for these, and everyone knows you can get stuck with fakes how would anyone dare pass one?!  There aren’t that many of us stupid white suckers taking night taxis in town are there?!

And in a related note, just this week, China Observer (a great blog, by the way) was saying that “you can’t counterfeit a BMW.”  Wrong!  You can.  Shuanghuan did.  They got sued.

http://wot.motortrend.com/6399969/government/shuanghuan-wins-case-against-bmw-will-continue-to-sell-ceo-suv-in-italy/index.htmlI even sent pic’s of the first one I ever saw to friends in the US 2-3 years ago.  I couldn’t believe it.  So, Ladies and Gentlemen, the Shuanghuan “CEO.”  Copy of the BMW X5.

Here’s more on other Chinese knock-off cars in Europe.  And to no one’s surprise, the CEO is a complete “safety disaster.“  The CEO is currently banned in Germany but still legal in Italy and of course in China too. (S-CEO image from MotorTrend.com)

Another couple of blogs on fake money.

The real point of all of this is this: if money and cars can be copied, why not your widget/art/design?  The answer is: It all can!  You need to take all the precautions you can to protect yourself BEFORE you starting passing around files/samples in China.  If you’re sending samples to 10 factories for bids and then only have the one factory you choose to work with sign all the NDA’s and other contractual agreements what are the the other 9 factories going to do with your samples/art?

Work with lawyers in both your home country and China before you come to China.  Get agreements signed and chopped before you send artwork/samples.  Maintain a regular presence in the factory that has your information. Remove the molds/tooling that you paid for when your project is completed.

QC Blog

“I have your salary envelope right over here; you can take it when you go.”  That’s what he said to me over tea just before I left his office to QC the product.  Of course, I didn’t take it.  I didn’t even let them buy my lunch.  And I don’t smoke or drink so they were a little flustered when I rejected their product and they couldn’t think of anything else to offer me.

Unfortunately, this wasn’t the first time this had happened.  And it certainly won’t be the last.  But it brings up an important issue—QC integrity.

Do QC get bribed?  Of course they do.  It’s a naive to even ask. We have fired more QC people in the last 7 years than people we have hired and fired in all other positions in all our offices in three countries combined.

Bribes may be as small as a lunch with a nod to getting a less-thorough inspection or as big as a few thousand Yuan cash pay-off to approve bad product.  But every single QC is offered something almost every time they make factory visits.  I personally have been offered cash, free product, meals, nights in hotels (with “service”), massages (with “service”), bottles of imported alcohol, packs of smokes, European chocolates and airplane tickets.  (The chocolates were the most tempting.)

So the question really should be—who’s paying your QC (the most)?  The answer better be you, or you’re not getting the quality that you’re paying for.  (Here’s a great article talking about the some numbers and some of the more formal ways you can confirm with you QC and the factory that your QC are not taking bribes.)

Now when I say “who’s paying your QC the most” I don’t mean that you need to match every offer they get or that you need to be paying your QC way above market prices.  What I do mean is that you your complete package and working environment better be good enough to retain the best workers and your system better be smart enough to be able to deal with the bribes in the system.

Here are some of the other things that we do to ensure good QC.

1.    Have a very clear policy in place for offenders.  We make very public examples of our firings when we have proof that QC have accepted bribes.  Face is a big deal, and the loss of face it a warning to others in the company that we will not stand for this type of behavior.

2.    Do as I do.  If you’re constantly going out to dinner with factory owners (even if you are the owner/buyer of the product) while you’re on QC visits you are blurring the lines and will not be able to defend your own actions if your get in an argument with a QC guy.  When you are doing QC do NOT ever go eat with the factory owners.  This will be really hard for factories to understand since you are a foreigner and their client.  But you can be very clear about which hat you are wearing which day, if you want too.  One day you are the potential buyer/client.  A few weeks later you are the QC—and you can be very specific about what you will and will not do on your QC visits.  Factories won’t like this but they will understand and they will agree if you are insistent (kind but insistent).

3.    Review your QC’s relationships with the factories and with your own company regularly.  This isn’t a sit-down formal interview that is just smoke and mirrors.  This is a direct conversation with both the factory and the QC about what’s going on—this has to be a conversation that the QC knows is going to happen regularly so that he is not offended or loses face by it.  But you’ve got to review prices, quality numbers and QC performance publicly and carefully to try to keep bribes out of the system—this interview is as much to warn the factory as it is to keep QC people on their toes.

4.    Have questionable reports looked over twice.  If you get a report that is noticeably different from previous reports (so good or so bad that it’s odd) you need to have someone else go and look at the product again.  Make this standard policy so that it’s not offensive and make sure that your praise people for doing things right when/if the second report confirms the first.

5.    Have a 2 strikes and you’re out policy.  Don’t misunderstand this.  If someone gets caught taking money or approving product that is bad they are gone immediately.   I’m talking about they go out to dinner with a factory even though they know they shouldn’t but the QC standards don’t change.  They still need to be warned—this is not acceptable behavior.  Maybe the 1 strike and you’re out is the better policy, but I like to make sure that I’m 100% correct on the facts before I fire anyone and with these types of issues, that’s hard to do.

6.    Trust your QC completely—until they give you a reason not too.  This is where my philosophy differs dramatically from the idea of most Chinese.  Yes, I probably lose money on this point. Yes, I know that I’ve been burned a few times on this point.  But I also have a couple of GREAT QC guys and some really good office staff that work harder, I think, because they know that I trust them.

7.    Have a foreigner go and look at the product. Even though just being foreign doesn’t make us any more/less honest than Chinese, and even though I’ve been offered bribes before, the “foreignness” of a non-Chinese QC is often enough to disrupt the system/process.  Often foreigners don’t speak Chinese and so don’t get the hints (or the factory can’t be subtle in English).  Many times, the product is the foreigner’s own product and so there is no way he’ll take a bribe.  We’ve even used college interns from the US for QC before—they speak Chinese, they’ll lose their school credit if they get fired/sent home early, they often are engineering or business majors and so have a real desire to learn/understand the processes and due to the short time they’re here they usually can’t see any production run more than once.  Foreigners get treated differently.  My QC never get invited into the boss’s office for tea or a “rest” before they start working—heck, they often never even get past the reception desk at most factories.

SIDE NOTE: I hear foreigners complain all the time about how hard it is to resist Chinese invitations to drink/eat/karaoke/etc.  They say “I’d never do this at home but I don’t want to be rude here.”  I say BS!  It’s not rude to refuse a gift or a meal/drink that you really don’t want it.  Chinese culture says that they have to offer something multiple times so the recipient doesn’t look greedy by accepting, so they offer and offer trying to be polite for you.  So yes, you can decline and they’ll probably be relieved, to be honest.  I say no all the time.  I force my Chinese QC guys to do it too.  So why can’t these other foreigners?  I think that it’s only as hard as you make it.  Really, it’s only hard to say no if you want to go but know you shouldn’t.  When you’ve already committed to yourself that you’re not going to go, then saying no is easy.  For example, if shellfish makes you sick, it’s very easy to tell the factory “No, I can’t eat that.”  If you were on a diet, you could easily tell the factory “I can’t drink soda pop, I need to lose weight” and they’d just give you water/tea/coffee.  So why is refusing a night of drinking baijiu any different?  All the complaints about how bad baijiu tastes or how boring a night of Karaoke is or how much all the smoke at a bight club/massage parlor makes you sick is something that you can choose to avoid.  I have NEVER in 7 years of QC been forced to do any single thing that I didn’t want to do.  I have never been asked more than 4-5 times to try/eat/take something after saying no.  If you say no and really mean it, in less than 1 minute it’s all over.

General QC Guidelines

1.    Have all other factory pieces available for testing.  We’ve got a new client that last year shipped in thousands of glass tops from one factory and thousands metal bases from another only to find out that despite correct art spec’s the pieces didn’t fit together!  Sending the coordinating parts to the other factory could have avoided this problem before they were all shipped.

2.    QC is for what has been done already not what can be done in the future.  Often the entire time of the visit is the factory saying, “We can fix that.”  But the QC report is about what is done now—and you need to get an accurate report of what they have done, not what they say they can do.  You need this report to confirm that changes/corrections/fixes/clean up has actually been done.  Often times factory managers don’t want me to record “little” problems because they “can fix those quickly.”  But if you don’t write it down, you’ll not ever have the record to confirm the fix.

3.    You’ve got to be consistent—if you’re not, they will not be either.  If you let stuff slide that is sub standard because “it’s ok, I guess” then they will too.  They will be as strict as you are.  If you come in, let a few little things slide, get drunk at lunch and don’t do a great job in the afternoon they will do the exact same thing when you’re not there.  And then they’ll be pissed off and surprised when you don’t accept the final product!

4.    No matter how nice they are, no matter how much discount they offer, don’t every change your standards.  As soon as you take a discount for a change they know that there is a price for quality and you will be offered that price for every mistake.  Maybe one mistake is minor and you’d honestly rather have the discount than take the time to fix it.  But taking the discount once means that that becomes the expectation.  And in the future mistakes will be allowed because (if you even catch it) they know they can buy you off.

5.    Try to ignore everyone in the factory—wear earphones.  Like I said before, there is an excuse for every problem piece and QC visits are often just one manager after another telling me why they didn’t get it right this time and why they will next time.  I choose to pick my conversations—I often wear earphones (sometimes with no music/news even playing).  This way I can talk about everything that I want to and ignore the rest.  4-6 hours of QC are much more interesting with music or PTI or whatever on your iPod anyway.

6.    One QC visit is NOT enough.  At least three to be confident.  At the very least you need to do one in-line visit at about 20-35% completion.  You need to do another when it’s all done.  And you need an third for packaging and container loading confirmation.  I know that some professional testing companies suggest up to 9 tests/visits starting with samples and raw material test and ending with the container confirmation.  I think that for many SME’s this is just too much money to spend on a small order.  But you must weigh the risk of the whole order being rejected by customs (or by you) if you don’t do test/QA.  Do as much as you can afford, not as little as you think that you can get away with.

7.    DON’T EVER BELIEVE THE STATEMENT: “Oh, we thought you wanted B or C grade product.  If we knew you wanted A grade there wouldn’t be so many rejects.”  Every time that a production run is rejected for having too many major or critical issues we get this excuse.  “You should have told us before that you wanted the higher quality goods.”  No, if you’ve done your pre-PO work correctly, all your standards should be set out clearly and agreed to (signed and chopped) before you ever get to the in-line QA.  Use your contracts.  Even though no one in China will ever look at them once you’ve paid a deposit, you included all the details for a reason—and a failed QA visit is that reason.

Here are some good questions to ask your 3PQC.

Here are a few other good blogs for QA/QC information:

3PL Wire

Quality Wars

Chief Asia Inspector

MOVED FROM THE TOP DOWN TO ACCOMMODATE NEW LINKS

Two quick notes about Dongguang before the QC blog.

First, a photo and note. As I was out at a factory in Dongguang today I saw lines of people looking for work outside most of the factories we drove past.  This is just one that we happened to stop in front of in traffic long enough for me to snap a quick photo.  I counted 25 people or more outside multiple factory gates.  I haven’t seen this since 2005.

Second, a security note.  Two other people (who shall remain nameless), while in a different part of Dongguang today, saw a group of people on the side of the road hack another person to death (at least they think he died) with a machete.   They kept on driving, sped up even, to get out of there as quickly as possible.

If you have money or are alone I would highly recommend that you DO NOT go out at night in any of the industrial areas outside of Shenzhen.  This would include Songgang, Dongguang, Longgang, Bao’an, Guanlan, Shiyan, Huizhou and other areas with tons of (unemployed) migrant workers and not a lot of policing or economic development.

I’ve seen fights, I’ve seen people get robbed and beaten, I’ve seen a woman and child get run over by large dump trucks, I’ve even seen a dead body on the street (at least I think it was dead), I’ve had family tell me about kidnappings they’ve seen, I’ve had family robbed at knife point and I’ve been pick-pocketed numerous times myself.  I’ve had clients tell me about huge gang fights they’ve see while making side excursions in shopping malls!  I even chased down and dragged to the police station two guys who tried to steal my bike once.  But I’ve never seen anything like this before.

You need to make sure that being here is really worth it for you.  And if you are staying here, you need to take the security threat seriously.  The risk is increased with more and more unemployed people loitering around.

(Here is a contextual update to the stories of violence related above–necessary since I’m getting tons of “the sky is falling emails)

Now on to the QC portion of the blog (this was what I really was going to blog about today–before the other two events happened).

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4 Feb Update: h/t to Michael S. for sending me this Economist article about Dongguan today in response to the Dongguan stories above.

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