Entries Tagged as ''

One More Day of News Links

Since I’ve been at factories and solving project issues all week, I’ve not had time to write a “real” blog–so here is another of my (usually) tri-weekly news links list.  Enjoy.

1. China on President Elect Obama

First, be careful on Taiwan.   Second, in the short term, problems are expected. Third, a generally wary response from China to new US President Elect Obama.  Why not too excited?  Because the Chinese don’t know him from a hole in the ground.  Really?  Join the club.

So what will the first 100 days visa vis China be like?  And a better link (than last post) to more here.

Believe it or not, the US media thinks that Asia should swoon over Obama even though he’s still only the President Elect.  But he’ll soon be the next two-term President, I’ll bet.  Timing is everything—in 4 years the economy will probably be back up and President Elect Obama will get another 4 years.  It’s better to be luck than good, eh?

Surprise, surprise, surprise!  The same number of people voted this year as in 2004!!  Young neophytes showed up in droves this year and all the pissy old men stayed home.  Historic, indeed–it’s almost always the other way round.

And finally, what does Thailand think of President Elect Obama.

2. The Chinese Economy:

It’s crashing faster than expected.  Some say China growth will only be 8% next year (with extra links)!!  And some say 6%!  Yikes.

Airline and flyer demand slowing in China.  And China stocks keep dropping (and more) as do US stocks.  (Comment from a friend in the know about the US economy: “I just came from a bank regulators meeting in DC….it was beyond depressing.  There is a lot of pain still left to inflict out there in the economy.  The banks have already felt most of it…I suspect there will be more problems but most of the beating has occurred…as it works itself through the economy it is going to be very ugly.”)

And China’s banks are not immune.  And the Yuan will continue to weaken.  The incredible shrinking Euro won’t help China either.

And China is backing out of international investments to focus on the home market–not smart.

So the Govt wants a stimulus package.  I think that Chinese savers need an attitude adjustment, not a stimulus package, to get them to spent.  How about some confidence in domestic management?!   Most think that China will spend it’s way out of the recession, which is MUCH better than the US idea: borrow our way out (we are complete idiots!).

No matter what they do, this recipe won’t help anyone: Chinese (book) cooking!  Mmm, mmm, good.

But the bad economy will only last another 18 months, or so.  Maybe. The most tepid prediction of recovery every.  “expected” “should” “potentially” in 12 months.

But at least oil is dropping!!!

3. Doing Business in China

So what can a china business do to be safe(r)?  Part 1 and Part 2.

At least shipping is lower.   But be careful: Competition is going to heat up.  The US unemployed moving to China?!

Some advice from China: the west needs to change their earth-destroying lifestyles.  But let’s be real about climate change in China.  Remind me.  Where are 16 of the top 20 most polluted cities on the planet?

Good news!  Despite the blood in the streets, China and Taiwan are talking, that’s always good.  10K’s of protestors and riot police are actually good to—at least in Taiwan they can protest! OK, I guess you can protest/riot in China too.  Shenzhen incident last night; I didn’t see, hear or find any local news on this at all.