Silk Road International Blog

Had lunch with my friend Scott this week. He is the VP of a large (and famous) tech company from the US. He speaks Chinese, lives in China and likes a good bowl of noodles as much as the next guy. We got to talking business and I learned a few things from Scott.

First, Scott gets it.

He knows how to both manage relationships and projects in Asia. Case in point. Scott is working with a large Chinese supplier on an AV product for the US market. He understands that customer service in China is based on a philosophy of immediacy: “what have you done for me lately. And lately means: today! He negotiated prices for the 2008 buying year and within two weeks the supplier sent out notices of new (higher) pricing for the first 2008 orders. Scott, of course, said no. The supplier is still shipping. The point being—just because you have a signed contract for 10’s of millions of dollars doesn’t mean that negotiations are over.

Second, Scott laughs a lot.

He doesn’t get mad, doesn’t get even, doesn’t cheat, lie, steal or even swear. He’s the guy that everyone wants to work with. This is the way to do business in China, or anywhere for that matter. You are going to get screwed in China, because foreigner are coming from a much more developed business environment into a much newer, less structured/experienced environment in China where short term profits still often trump long term relationships. But Scott takes it all in stride—the deal isn’t dead with the attempt to raise prices after contracts are signed.

Third, Scott doesn’t let today spoil tomorrow.

Scott’s company currently employees more admin-level quality control managers in the US than in China even though they do almost all of their product here in Asia. Scott isn’t waging an internal war. He understands that corporate cultures from the West don’t change overnight even though production has long since moved to China. Factory locations change (change to new continents even!) much faster than attitudes do. But is he angry that he’s up nights to coordinate international what should be local issues? Nope. Is he complaining that “people just don’t get it?!” Nope. He’s fighting maintaining his poise and position and waits as the tide eventually changes and the winds eventually blow in his direction.

I learned a lot from my lunch with Scott. He has vision that extends beyond current political trends and current project setbacks. He makes decisions based on values and his strategies are designed to achieve success—lasting personal and professional success in China and in life. It’s working already.

Thanks, Scott.

Tags: Business by david
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On CNN TV this AM (but nothing on their website) I saw a show about going “China-Free for Christmas. The “news” (gag, choke, cough, chortle) had Barbie telling Ken that she’s “contracted lead poisoning” and is rather embarrassed about it. I kid you not—CNN the “world leader” is using talking dolls to push BS politically motivated agendas.

Wait, maybe that’s not surprising.

Now what CNN and others are NOT saying is that more than 99% of all imports from China to the US are safe—not very exciting news, eh? They also don’t say that the percentage of rejected products FROM the US to China is higher!!! Yup, the US has a worse record than China! Don’t hear many Chinese planning a American-Free Chinese New Year.

Now I’ve got 5 boys between the ages of 12 and 1 so I’m certainly going shopping this Christmas. But making it China free? Um…not a chance. I know better and I don’t have the time to hunt down or the money to spend on US toys/products even if I didn’t. These are great excuses, I know, but the real kicker is this: if my kids and I didn’t want US products last week/month/Christmas why do we want them now?!

But just in case you are well educated (i.e. you don’t watch CNN) and missed Ken and Barbie this morning here a few more choice lies promoting the China-Free concept. First a site that’s supposed to help, if you really want to try to go China-free. But, like the CNN crap it’s completely impractical and basically dishonest. (More on this later.) As is this article with no stats about how many people are actually avoiding China vs. just “thinking twice” about it. As with most things, people talk morals and spend money completely differently but this article would lead you to believe that so many people are going China-Free they couldn’t even interview one without stepping on the toes of another.

Politicians have Christmas too! This claim to be able to stop unsafe products from Clinton denies the fact that the problem is the inability of US companies to do adequate QC on their own products and the federal government has even less control within China. Or this site listing toys from Thailand and Indonesia as an alternative—as if production standards in Thailand (read: outsourced to Cambodia) are so much better! (That was sarcasm; the standards are NOT better.) Or how about this article that says all China made stuff is “cheap plastic crap.” Can you say iPod, Sony, Nike, Nokia, Dell? Yup, all made in China and exported to the US.
This blog cries “9 million toys recalled by Mattel,” but all but one type of toy listed was recalled for DESIGN problems, not lead or manufacturing problems. How is that a China issue?! Sound like stupid Americans to me.

Now to clear the air, I’ll admit my job is China. I live there, I work there, and I buy stuff and manufacture stuff there. But before you say “see you have a vested interest in making China look good” think about this: the recent product recalls are the best press I could have ever dreamed of for my business! The more recalls there are the more business I get. The safer China is the more business I lose. So financially it would be smart for me to shut up and agree with CNN. But the “news” is so completely stupid that I just can’t.

Now, since CNN isn’t putting their crap online, we’ll use US News and World Report’s article on the same topic as a substitute. Rick Newman’s suggestions, in USN&WR, for going China-free couldn’t be more stupid if he was trying to do parody. Remember, Rick is trying to sell magazines—his Christmas depends on it–so you know he’s got a vested interest in stoking the flames. For example:

Rick says: “avoid toys with magnets and small parts.” What does this have to do with China? Don’t the designs for these “small parts” come from US companies with US designers that are also producing “small parts” in the US? Mattel already admitted as much, saying that this was a US problem, not a China problem. Maybe avoiding small parts is safe for unsupervised toddlers but won’t help you go China free.

Rick says: “avoid painted toys unless they are made in the US or EU.” This is to keep kids away from lead poisoning, I guess. First, 85% of all US sold toys are made in China so this is going to be hard to do. But what Rick doesn’t tell you is that toys that are made in many countries all over the world can be listed as “made in the US” or “made in UE” if they meet assembly percentages. So, this is just smoke and mirrors. Buy lead covered parts from China, ship to Mexico–no china labels! Further, is the scare lead poisoning or China rising? If you’re really worried about lead (and not just news scares) you’ll have to avoid all the items that contain lead not just the ones that have lead paint from China.

Rick Says: “Don’t buy metal Jewelry” because of the possible lead in the materials and the dangerous parts. None? How about safe, US made stuff? So painted things from the US are ok but metal things aren’t? Does metal jewelry break more often than plastic? How is this one of the major fears of toy shoppers? Once again, Rick is either just using China in the headline to sales papers or doesn’t think that you as a parent have enough sense to keep knives and scissors away from 2 year olds.

Rick says: “buy brand-name toys” because the big companies have a better chance of finding and fixing mistakes in China than do smaller brands. OK, this is just pure unadulterated ignorance. Rick has obviously never been to China or a factory. Here are a couple pieces of fact from my experience in factories on the ground.

1. All manufactures in China outsource to at least some degree. Some outsource the whole item, some just raw materials (like paint).

2. None of large toy manufactures or box stores, NO ONE is going all the way up the supply line on each and every piece of each and every $2 Thomas Train and testing it all themselves. NO ONE! Not in China, not in India, not in Mexico. NO ONE. Some of the EU stores have said they want to (tacking carbon foot printing) and it’s going to cost MILLIONS of dollars and take years to implement.

One of these big companies told me directly, when we were having a product/factory qualified for their production in 2005, “just pick the biggest and cleanest factory and don’t list the sub-suppliers.” Yea, there’s some brand-name safety for you!

Another one of the big boys has such a corrupt QC department that QC employees are able to “retire” after only a few years of work. I’ve been told numbers of how much a factory pays said company’s QC to accept product–QC guys are paid thousands of US dollars to approve product every time something ships.

Another big company, I’ve been told, demands payment to approve the shipping of even acceptable product.

3. Big companies don’t always have the best processes, just the lowest prices and biggest orders–and those are the keys to business in China. I have seen the reports for materials that are tested for name brand goods but then the actual materials that are put into products with these big companies names on them are completely different. I can promise you that the brand name means much less than you think.

Rick says: “test for lead yourself.” Um…don’t I have to buy the toys first to do this?! How is that sticking it to China? Sounds like you’d have me buy product, test it, reject it and then buy it again just with a “made in the USA” sticker on it. So… China gets its money. The toy company gets double. And me, the consumer, is out twice. How about—don’t let your kids eat Thomas the train?! The lead levels in the paint of the rejected Mattel toys was less than what was in the paint in the schools and homes when I was a kid–and, guess what? I’m still alive!

Rick says: “check for recalls.” Ok, good idea—but how about, since we want safe goods specifically from China, check and see if the problem is US design or China manufacturing. Buying lead free items from the US that will choke your children is, kind-of a step back, I’m thinking.

As American we like cheap stuff. Don’t deny it. Look at the personal credit crisis, the mortgage collapse and the success of Wal Mart (”Low Price Leader”). The bottom line is this: until the price of goods from China is as expensive as the same goods manufactured in the US the “China-Free Christmas” will continue to be a TV-news only issue. Don’t believe me? Just look and see how many of your electronics, kitchen and household decoration items, furniture, clothes, shoes, bags and car parts are made in China. Are you willing to forego the lowest prices, sale items and name-brand items that you and your kids want this year just to be politically correct? Unless it’s financially painless, this boycott will be dead before it starts.

If you really want to make a difference there are a couple of things you really can do. First, boycott items and stores, not brands and countries. The US companies are the ones with their name on the products. They are the ones testing and doing QC and QA. They are the ones demanding lower and lower prices. They are the ones making the most money (significantly higher % than the Chinese factories). They are also usually the ones with PR departments in the US and (oft corrupt) QC departments in China—convenient.

Second, make sure that if you decide not to buy a specific good from China (or any where for any reason) you write to the company and tell them why. If you don’t write they won’t know.

Third, if you are involved in overseas production then you must be responsible for anything and everything that has your name on it!!! You, only you can prevent….(insert product recall reason here).

This is a political issue and when there are kids and safety involved you know the media is going to run it into the dirt. Follow the money if you want to know who’s really at fault and where the news is coming from.

But hey, all this China-is-evil press is great for my business! 圣诞快乐 (Merry Christmas)!

Tags: Business by david
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Just a few days ago I had a client ask me about some (factory direct) prices, saying: “I thought China was supposed to be a great deal?!” Well sure, it can be. But not everything every time is going to be blow-your-socks-off cheap and fast. It often depends on a number of different factors, some you can and some you cannot control.

For example if you’ve got small quantities and lots of SKU’s, as does this client, there really isn’t going to be a great bargain anywhere. One of the keys to “China pricing” is millions of the same widgets, not hundreds of different widgets.

Another key is having a real reason to be here—are you here just because everyone else is? Can you do smaller runs just as cheaply at home without the hassle of overseas production? Unless there is clear bottom line (or other) reasons to be here, you don’t have to be here.

A third key is to do your research UP FRONT. Don’t make the transition to China and then see if it is cost effective to have done so. Finding and qualifying the best supplier possible will save you TONS of money, problems and headaches later.

Now there are obviously thousands of other issues that affect the prices of individual products too. These are both product specific and very general issues that cross over multiple industries. I can’t speak here to product specifics, but I do know that what happens with these general issues affects my bottom line and that of my clients’. So here’s a list of general things that are making the price in China go up now.

1. The US government. Because politicians and unions lobby Congress to pressure China to raise their RMB the prices in China will rise as the RMB strengthens. In the past 2.5 years prices for Chinese goods have gone up more than 10% do to this fact alone (8.3 to 7.4). Sure, there are a few thousand manufacturing jobs in the US that will benefit from this, but there are 300 million consumers in the US that will not. But the consumers don’t have a lobby in DC like the manufacturers do. In addition to the consumers there are also thousands of American SME’s that will be caught in the squeeze—they are too big to keep manufacturing in the US (or their industry is too price competitive) but with a rising RMB they can’t get the competitive pricing they need in China either—hence my client’s question in the opener.

2. Inflation in China. The CPI in China is up more than 6% in the last year. That means that indirectly prices for labor and the costs to house/feed workers has gone up. This is in part due to the incredible bubble in the Chinese housing and stock markets, and in part due to the annual 10% growth rates that the government can’t, despite their best efforts, reign in.

3. Prices of raw materials/commodities. The war in Iraq, growth in China and other global issues are raising the price of commodities all over the globe. China is no exception. When your products are heavy into commodities with little value-added you’re competing with the rest of the global markets—and sometimes US tech is going to be cheaper than Chinese labor as it’s more developed than that that in China. To compete with this Chinese factories are gearing up—buying new equipment to compete with the more developed industrialized countries (and raising your prices to pay for the equipment).

4. The new China moon probe. Ok, the probe itself isn’t raising prices in China, but the shift to technology over lower end manufactured goods means that (educated) labor is more expensive than it was just 5 years ago. Why are Western China, Cambodia and Vietnam exciting? Because the cost of labor (for one thing) is cheaper than in Eastern China. China isn’t pricing it’s self out of the cheap labor market yet, but there is a conscious effort to do just that—they don’t want to be the “low cost leader” when it comes to low-end manufacturing.

5. Domestic Chinese Growth. Labor prices in general are rising in China as the population becomes more urbanized. The numbers today show that about 44% of the Chinese population is urban compared with only 35% 15 years ago—and that number is expected to continue to rise over the next decade. The demand for production for the domestic market means that more (not-for-export) factories are competing for more and more of the labor pool previously dominated by export-only factories. It also means that cities are growing bigger and bigger and the cost of living is going up for laborers that live in urban areas.

6. Mature industries and industrial zones. Competition between regional industrial centers (Yangtze River vs. Pearl River) for a limited labor force means that laborers have a choice of where they want to work. Within industries skilled laborers, and even unskilled to a lesser degree, have a choice of factories in similar industries and even within the same industrial parks. Factory-offered incentives to laborers, most especially skilled labor, are rising quickly in this limited labor market. Yes, you read that right; there is a limit to the Chinese population and the available pool of labor. Western educated Chinese have their pick of jobs and change employers regularly. Factories are complaining regularly that they just “can’t find workers” or “workers refuse to work over time” and “if you yell at a worker they’ll walk out and go get a job across the street.” Just about makes you pine for the good old days, don’t it?!

7. The Chinese government. The government is scared that too much growth is bad and that the growth rates are currently (Q3 = 11.5%) too high. So they are regularly raising interest rates (again this last week) making it harder to get cash to do business in China. On a related note, why is the Chinese economy so strong while the West (and the US in particular) seems to be having issues (housing, banking, stocks, etc.)? Part of the answer is the fact that the RMB is not fully convertible—meaning it’s not free to exchange on the open market. This insulates the Chinese economy from the ups and downs of the world markets. Another part of the answer is that the Chinese economy is an export economy so it lags the downturns in the West. A third part is the large domestic market that is growing as well as the construction that is necessary just to keep up with annual internal migration.

8. Wal-Mart. Yup, the low price leader changes prices here by demanding low low prices. So low in fact, that factories are forced make their margins on other clients. If you’re making bags in the same factory as Wal-Mart, for example, you’ll certainly not get the Wal-Mart factory price and you’ll probably get a higher price since the factory won’t be making any money on the Wal-Mart deal (that is also pushing back your production times). So why do factory’s work with Wal-Mart if they don’t make much money? Factories I work with have given me the following answers. First, they want the name and status that comes from the association with Wal-mart. That status is not just face, but money—the Wal-Mart name in China is a by word for quality production and international standards. Buyers and traders often use the Wal-Mart certification as a standard to measure the capabilities of factories. Second, they know that Wal-Mart doesn’t just do one-off’s and so they can keep people employed and have a consistent source of income. Third, they expect that one product order will lead to others. Once your foot’s in the door…

9. Quality Control and Testing. The scares of the past summer are now going to translate into “additional costs” for anyone producing here. Of course you can ask the factory to pay for product tests themselves, but ultimately the costs will find their way back to you. In the toy industry prices are going up because out of 2700 some odd toy factories in Guangdong the government just closed down 700-plus. That’s 25% of the manufacturing base gone, overnight! The related question is now, with the rise in testing/inspection standards and enforcement will there really be an appreciable rise in standards too? Date-rape drug beads recall this week would be strike one.

10. Alibaba. Ok, not just Alibaba but all sourcing sites that take payment for rankings and don’t audit their vendors. I think that Alibaba, because there are so many unverifiable vendors on the site, makes the cost of doing business in China higher. I know, I know. With the billion-dollar IPO last week I’m being sacrilegious, but I still think that it’s true. Most of our new clients are companies who used Alibaba (and other sites) and just couldn’t get real product to match anything they saw on-line. They spend time and money working with online suppliers only to find that they’ve wasted months to produce something that just won’t cut it. Sure they had a “learning experience” but at what cost?!

11. Green GDP. While this has been scuttled a number of times in China in the last 5 years, it’s getting more and more attention as the conditions in China are getting worse and worse. It goes without saying that production without any environmental controls in China is going to be cheaper (in the short run) than production anywhere else that has environmental controls. Further, as the many EU distributors start tracking the carbon footprint of their products expect prices to rise accordingly (read: astronomically).

12. Paying the Piper—Yup, the days of Americans living on debt are coming to a swift (and painful) end. We’ve had a late night out and now it’s time to go to work in the early AM—and it’s going to be a long day. The Dollar is weakening, the economy is sluggish, we’ve got way to much consumer and collective debt, the housing market hasn’t hit bottom yet and growth is slowing while inflation is rising—the American economy isn’t the hottest date at the ball any more and, consequently, we’re going to paying more for just about everything.

Now all of this doesn’t mean that China isn’t an opportunity any more. But it does mean that what happens in Topeka or Bagdad has influence on prices in your Dongguang factory. So again, do the homework before hand. Know what your approximate prices are going to BEFORE you place orders or ask for bids and then you’ll never be saying “Hey, I thought this was going to be a great deal?! What happened?”

Good luck!

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Dan Harris, on the always-excellent China Law Blog, has listed out listed 6 common myths that he hears regularly from foreigners coming to work in China.

I then wrote to him with a list of myths that I encounter time and time again from my clients—and he commented on each of “my” myths.

The complete legal myths post is here.

His response to me is below—I’ve separated the questions and responses so they are a bit easier to follow.

__________________________________
David Dayton,

Heard them all many times and all have at least a grain of truth to them. Here goes:

1. Courts are not independent. Whether you win or lose in court could be up to the people that the court is connected to. Many govt. officials are involved in “private industry.” It may not matter if all your legal ducks are in a row if the other side has better guanxi. True or not?

True, but the farther away one gets from the local officials (i.e., appeals), the less likely this is to be true.

2. The legal system is getting better all the time but enforcement is still so poor that it may not matter. Even if you win, so what? Maybe you can stop one offense, but if there is money in it another will pop up (or may already have). True or not?

True, but part of this is that Chinese courts are just learning about things like fraudulent transfers and piercing the corporate veil. I have had many discussions on these issues with Chinese lawyers (because this is an issue in which I have a lot of experience and interest) and they tell me that we lawyers need to keep working on the judges on this and things will continue improving. I believe this. I argued and lost (through my Korean lawyers) the piercing the corporate veil doctrine in Korea so many times that I actually think it was my arguments that finally led Korea to institute a piercing the corporate veil law. China already has one, but it is going to take a while before it becomes truly effective.

3. IPR protection/enforcement is really the domain of politics rather than courts. Case in point: The Olympics. The fact that they can enforce IP on issues that are of ($) value to the State shows that IPR is still a political rather than legal issue, at least some of the time. Economic development of China is still a more important issue than international IPR. True or not?

Mostly False. You are combining two things here. I agree that enforcement of IPR outside the courts is mostly political, but if you bring your own civil suit to enforce IPR in China, your chances are not half bad.

4. Because China is process rather than precedent based system if someone else files paperwork for your trademark/patent/etc. you are basically out of luck. China is not the only country that works like this, I know, but as “the world’s factory” and the largest source of black market goods it’s a huge issue here. True or not?

Half true, half false. This is a huge, huge issue and it is usually the very first issue I raise with every new client. It is mostly a huge issue for North Americans (which is where most of our client base comes from) because things are the exact opposite here. There is absolutely nothing wrong with China’s IP laws as they are (I am told) very similar to many EU countries. They are very different from US laws and so US companies tend to get burned. The US, for instance, says the first to use a trademark gets it while China (and most other countries) say the first to file for it gets it. I do not think one system is necessarily better than the other, but in the first to file system you should as hell better know about it or you run massive risks. We get calls all the time from US companies complaining about how someone in China stole “their” trademark and we have to tell them it was not theirs to begin with. Of course, had they hired a lawyer with China experience and simply paid the minimal fee upfront to register the trademark, they would not be having any problem. So it is nothing we lawyers cannot easily remedy.

What’s the take away from all of this is this? DO ALL YOUR LEGAL WORK IN CHINA NOW!!!!!

The question is not “does the legal system work or not?” The question should be “have I done all the legal work I can to protect myself yet?”

I’m constantly amazed that US companies are willing to just say “China is an IPR hole so I’m just not going to do anything.” OK, they don’t actually say that, but that is what their actions say. You wouldn’t do that anywhere else so why is OK in the one place where you need protection more than anywhere else?!

Just do it!

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As promised, here is the outline of the presentation that I gave in HK. The focus was first-time buyers and some of the things they should be watching out for in starting work in China.

An updated version of this presentation will be give in Shanghai at the Global Sources Show, December 13th.

Evaluating Potential Suppliers in China
• Qualitative Techniques for choosing the best factory for your needs.

What to know about China BEFORE you start talking
• “Westerners come to China with too much trust.” Chinese people don’t even trust Chinese from other provinces.
• The legal system is probably not what you are used to. While it’s getting better it is not independent and is not precedent based (it’s a file first system).
• Potential suppliers will probably never say no. If they say maybe, that means no.
• There will be problems. Don’t go in blind-you will have problems so chose your suppliers carefully.
• You do NOT need special relationships or backdoor connections to work in China any more. Don’t go here. Do it right, do it legally or don’t do it.
• Factories are limited in the number of people that can/will make decisions. If you aren’t talking with the decision maker you’re wasting your time.

There is no substitute for being here yourself
• You cannot judge a factory by their website or show booth
• You must visit the supplier yourself, probably more than a few times.
• Plan on multiple trips for better quality and better/faster problem solving (i.e. better personal relationships).
• You cannot manage a project from 5000 miles away by phone, fax and email; especially when English is the second or even third language.
• If you’re working with trading company and they tell you can’t go see the factory, get a new trading company immediately. If they are not completely transparent you don’t want to work with them.

Realistic Expectations
• Tradeshows are just that-SHOWS. So verify everything yourself.
• Don’t expect to finish everything in a 10 day visit. Your factory visits better take more time than your trip to the Great Wall or the Canton Fair.
• You can have any two of the following:
– High quality
– Short production times
– Low cost

Questions to ask at a trade show:
• Ownership?
• Export History/license?
• Client Recommendations?
• Actual Capacity?
• Age/condition/make/ model of Equipment?
• Average Order Qtty?
• Average Production Time?
• Sales Department Questions:
– Fluent in English?
– Dedicated rep?
– How long with company/turnover?
– Can you talk with managers/engineers directly?
– Who makes decisions on price/materials/quality?
– 3rd party QC?

Factory Visits
• Plan on spending as much time on the floor as you can–more than a day, if possible.
• Make sure you see production and QC in action.
• Talk with the factory’s other clients–why are they there and what is their experience?
• Bring you own translator and probably lawyer too (if it’s a big project/order).
• Visit as many potential sites as possible.
• Talk directly with designers, managers, QC and engineers not just sales people.

Questions to Ask Yourself and the Supplier
• Can you honestly communicate with them?
• Do you feel comfortable working together?
• Are you going to have issues justifying the factory conditions to your investors?
• What are the production line bottlenecks that will most affect you? Is the allocation of labor what you need?
• How much of their production do they outsource? You cannot ask this question too many times or to too many people.
• Do they have multiple sites? Which one did they show you? Where will they (really) produce your items?
• How many other large clients? What’s their order schedule?
• When is their high season?
• What does the price include/not include? Know your INCO terms!
• What is done with non-conforming products? If you don’t both specify and verify what is to be done you’ll most likely see your rejected products again.
• How does the factory control molds, design and other IP?
• Utilities and back up?
• Is the QC department independent from production goals?
• Do they have various MNC (Wal-Mart, Disney, etc.) and industry certifications?
• How do they verify incoming product quality/origin? Can you have original documents and copies of standards?
• R&D and/or mold design/manufacturing done on site or outsourced? If not on site how do they control quality?
• Safety procedures defined and followed?
• Do they pay at least local minimum wage?
• How much machine/process training is provided for each person/assignment?
• Is there project and shift specific training?

Final Points
• Complete more Due Diligence than you normally would in your home country.
• Be involved in the process more than you would with an order in your home country.
• Record ALL conversations, commitments, changes, options, problems, EVERYTHING. You will be the only one that records things, so make it a habit to send copies of conversations to your supplier and have them confirm them.
• Take ALL legal precautions you can at home and in China.
• There is always another story/more to the story; so keep asking questions.
• Spend the necessary time to do all due diligence BEFORE you pay for any product or sign any contracts.

Tags: Business by david
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