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Better than Freidman’s “The World is Flat” because it has more research and less left-leaning political solutions. Clyde Prestowitz’s “3 Billion New Capitalists” is a more complex read and of more value since it looks at both the causes of America’s decline/Asia’s rise and the numbers behind the trends. While Freidman regales us with anecdotes, Prestowitz tries to overwhelm with statistics.

The two general themes make up the case for the potential fall of the US from world dominance and the rise of Asia, and to a lesser extent the EU and Brazil in it’s place. While Prestowitz groups these issues together, I think that there are really two different issues:

One is the fall of America and the Dollar from the top spot in the world economic-political hierarchy and the rise of Asia, and the Euro, in it’s place. The decline in the quality of American education, the lack of government support/encouragement for both economically strategic industries and maths and sciences gets most of the blame. Conversely, the willingness of other countries to see specific types of education and industries as keys to national security has made the “free trade” playing field anything but level.

The second issue is the environmental degradation that is changing the balance of economic powers—global warming, water pollution, over use of natural gas, oil and other natural minerals and metals. While this is certainly tied to the industrial revolution and the consumer culture of capitalism (e.g. the US) it seems to me to be a second, but parallel issue rather than part of a larger international financial shift to the East. Further, while the consumption doctrine must be laid at the feet of the US, there is no evidence that a Communists Russia or China would have been any more environmentally friendly. Indeed, I would argue that the great workers’ paradises have been and are more of an environmental disaster than the US.

Despite the organization, I agree with the doom for the US scenario. Education outside of University level is atrocious and I don’t want my kids in anything resembling public schools in the US. Also, long term planning in the US also seems to equate to a two term president rather than a view of decades that is more common in Asia. Finally, the rate of personal savings (oxymoron?) in the US and the national debt must be brought under control immediately. Regardless of the rise or fall of the rest of the world, these three issues must be resolved or the US as we know it will end for ever.

I have three specific problems with the conclusions. Prestowitz spends 250 pages convincing us that the world as we, American’s, know it is coming to a speeding and disastrous end. Yet he glosses over the one statistic that makes the American Dream still viable. In his chapter on Indian growth he lauds the fact that India has something that neither China, Brazil, Russia nor the EU have—a young population and a relatively high birth rate. This is one of the saving graces for the slower-than-the-Chinese-on-the-world-scene Indians. Yet this same demographic, when identified for the US has little or no potential value at all and warrants only a mention in passing. Indeed, by 2025 only India and the US will have median population ages under 50! The US at 40 and India at 37. If this is a long term saving grace for India, why not for the US as well?

Problem number two is the complete hopelessness of his solutions. He offers a number of things that should happen to reverse the trends, not just for the US but for the rest of the world as well—but almost every one has the caveat: “this probably won’t happen, but it should.” Well, how about realistic solutions? If there is no way that the US or other countries has the political appetite to change, proposing such solutions is of little or no value.

Finally, my question to Mr. Prestowitz and all the other US doomsayers (not that I disagree with their conclusions) is: so what if we’re not number 1 anymore?! I’m not sure that China, India, Brazil and EU with more power, more money and more education relative to the US is a bad thing. Sure we probably couldn’t invade Iraq unilaterally again, but if the Dollar is too strong, and the US needs more export markets, and competition for markets is really a good thing (like we’ve been preaching for the last 50 years), why is the rise of these other powers wholly bad? I live in China now—a stronger, more educated China with more money and more responsibility to the world community would not just be a good thing, it would be fantastic!

Certainly the US needs to save more and get out of personal and collective debt. We must, as global citizens, address the environmental problems that do not recognize political boundaries. US education needs to improve. But 3 billion new capitalists are going to play a role in shaping the decisions and actions of more than just the US government in the next 25-50 years. Great book, weak ending.

Tags: Book Reviews by david
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Good grief. You’d think that if your history was 2000 year’s old, you were the fastest growing economy every in the history of the world and you were coming into your own as a world power you’d not be threatened by a cup of coffee and a green logo. Well, think again.

China has once again has displayed it’s national insecurities with the admission that it’s considering a request to remove a Starbucks from the Forbidden City. Apparently, the fact that Starbucks is inside the walls of the Forbidden City (akin to say, a Panda Express in the Smithsonian) is an “an insult to Chinese civilization.” I thought China was still “working to build a civilized society.”

Now, to be fair, not everyone in China agrees that a Starbucks in the Forbidden City is an insult. Indeed, Starbucks is so popular that they’ve had to file numerous trademark lawsuits in China—apparently no Chinese are offended by the color of money. But enough are offended at this cultural outrage that the proposed removal is being considered. Aren’t there bigger issues than a coffee shop that are threatening the cultural purity of the Chinese? Are some Chinese really so threatened by a latte that it has to be eliminated from the presence? If Chinese culture is so great, won’t “all Chinese people on both sides of the straight” overcome this insult by just naturally boycotting the café out of sheer national pride?

My theory is that the café is doing well—probably very well. And some official is bugged that tourists aren’t drinking the particular brand of tea from his hometown or cousin’s tea plantation.

Other theories claim that it’s really a bit more offensive than us American Capitalist Pigs may think. More akin to a McDonald’s in the Louver.

Either way, China needs to step beyond it’s past and into the future–insults, real or imagined, to dead emperors should be taken with a grain of salt. Or coffee, as the case may be.

Tags: Culture by david
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The new Suwarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok is so bad that… (insert your favorite punch line here). The name means heavenly land. But it’s anything but heavenly!

What strikes me as I read and talk about the new BKK airport with others is not that there are problems it’s that they are so openly discussed. Even in Thailand, which has one of the freest presses in the region the criticism has been more than the usual outburst against poor quality construction.

This time, there are politics at stake—the lingering image of former PM Taksin and his alleged corruption and cronyism. Most commentaries on the quality of the airport includes at least one comment to the effect of “this just shows how corrupt Taksin was.”

Indeed most papers and blogs are saying that the airports failures are directly related to Taksin’s willingness to enrich crony’s and himself at the country’s expense—everything from design flaws, to runway cracks to broken pipes to a lack of toilets are apparently his fault. Not that they will ever be proven, but certainly there are corrupt deals that were made to gain airport contracts—I defy you to name one projects in Asia that isn’t done that way. But while the Baht stops with Taksin, or did, it also passed through the hands of thousands of others along the way.

Thailand needs to move beyond the blame game and solve the problems. I’m not saying let Taksin off the hook, but do something constructive (literally) with the airport problems. Regardless of who ultimately is/was responsible for the problems at Suwarnabhumi, the issues need to be solved and repaired quickly. The rash of bad international press is directly effecting the economy and tourism—when combined with the coup that replaced Taksin and the continual ethnic unrest in the South, Thailand is losing it’s tourist paradise luster.

Tags: Culture, Politics by david
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The Chinese Government’s latest attempt at being seen as a world power shows just how far they’ve come and how big a gap of a gap there still is in their understanding of international political norms.

The ability to shoot a satellite out of orbit puts China in a unique group. Only Russia and the US have also successfully demonstrated this ability. The technical advances that China has shown in the last few years are world class—a man in space, their own fighter plane and now their rocket technology. Heady stuff for a country that didn’t have any functioning universities 30 years ago.

Critics of China’s latest foray into the space race will say that China is deliberately being belligerent and will only encourage other developing countries to increase their offensive space technology also. Not to mention that the US is very threatened since many of our military sat’s are in orbits similar to the weather sat that China shot down.

But more than the development of technology, I see the communications gap, or the unwillingness to play as a member of a global community as more threatening. China refused to comment on the rocket test for two whole weeks. Not even acknowledging direct questions. When they did verify what the rest of the world could already confirm they refused to accept any degree of responsibility for what effect their actions may have on other countries in the world.

China is not ignorant of the global environment in which they participate. Indeed they regularly, and bellicosely, whine that they are not accorded the respect they deserve as the worlds largest population, 4th largest economy and third largest country. But it seems that the leaders in Beijing are of the impress, or at least the attitude, what they do in the name of “domestic development” or “national defense” are not only off limits to any outside commentary but actually occur in a vacume.

China just doesn’t think that they need to play by the rules.

Tags: Culture, Politics by david
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As I live and work in China I have an unusual amount of travel time—which means that I have a lot of time to read. In fact, I’ve polished off about 35 books in the last couple of years, most about China, as I’ve traveled to and from factories.

So, I’m going to make some general book recommendations and then review, each month, a couple of books dealing with China. I’ll start here with the recommended reading list and add reviews each week or so as I finish new books and review older ones. All of the books in the following list, and another 20 or so books that I’ll finish this year will be reviewed in by the end of the year.

Recommended China Reading:

• 1421—Gavin Menzies; A foreign addition to the new “China-did-it-first” literature, this is an pseudo-academic look at China’s claim to mapping out the world long before the West.
• Art of War, The—Sun Tzu, translated by Ralph D. Sawyer; The classic book of Chinese strategy for war and business.
• China CEO—Juan Antonio Fernandez and Laurie Underwood. Very general information that tries not to stereotype or offend and so fails to deliver the punch or detail necessary that could make it really useful. Chapters are more experiencial than practical/applicable and reads more like a textbook for a “international business class.” Does offer “todo” lists in each chapter, but their vagueness is frustrating.
• China Hands: Nine Decades of Adventure, Espionage, and Diplomacy in Asia—James R. Lilley; A really cool personal history of a foreign famly’s life and work in China over almost the entire 20th century. Lots of famous names, dates and people. An easy read.
• China Inc.—Ted C. Fishman; quick review and preview of the largest and fastest growing economy in the history of the world. Hope on board, the bandwagon isn’t full yet.
• China Shakes the World—James Kynge. Not a book about the business implications of the new Chinese economy (which I thought it would be—my mistake), but rather an interesting collection of narratives and business experiences in China over the last 25 years. Disappointing because of my expectations, but interesting nevertheless.
• Chinese Business Etiquette—Scott D. Seligman; The best book I’ve ever read on what it’s like to “live” in the Chinese business environment! He knows the Chinese. MUST READ!
• Chinese Cinderella—Adeline Yen Mah; An emotional personal history of life as a women in “modern” China. Another depressing look at the history of women in China.
• Chinese Family and Kinship—Huge D.R. Baker; Academic look at Chinese family relationships and the networks they create. More academic than practical, I first read this in college—and only have read it again since I’ve married into a Chinese family.
• Coming Collapse of China, The—Gordon Chang; Every reason you’ve ever heard why to never work with China—a perceptive but long winded balance to the ever present optimism about China. If you can get past the obvious paranoia/grudge there is a lot of wisdom in the cautions presented.
• Flow of Gifts, The—Yunxiang Yan; Reciprocity and social networks in a Chinese Village. More of an academic look than an easy read. But the practical and real-world application of guanxi is both interesting and useful for learning more about Chinese relationships.
• Gifts Favors and Banquets—Mayfair Mei-hui Yang; This book is the standard on Chinese relationships. An academic look at the influence of thousands of years of history on business relationships in China.
• Harvard Business Review on Doing Business in China, The—Various authors. Unfortunately, the content does not live up to it’s name sake. This book is simplistic, outdated, and focuses exclusively on marketing to the domestic Chinese market.
• Joy Luck Club, The—Amy Tan; two generations of Chinese women in three families deal with modernity, relationships and their own history. Great book, great movie too.
• Kitchen God’s wife, The—Amy Tan. Not nearly as good as The Joy Luck Club. If you’re not a woman having a midlife crisis or addicted to everything Chinese you can skip this.
• Life and Death in Shanghai—Nian Chen; a personal look at the politics and life in Communist China’s cosmopolitan center. Gets better reviews than I think it deserves, but it so commonly read that you can blow though it quickly and know what everyone is talking about.
• One Billion Customers—James McGregor; “Lessons from the front lines of doing business in China.” Probably the most honest and accurate book on doing business in China. Another MUST READ.
• One Couple, Two Cultures—Dan Roberts; Nice book to validate the fact that all marriages have communications issues. Not much on research or contextual analysis. Unless your in a mixed-racial relationship don’t bother. And even then, think twice.
• Myths About Doing Business in China—Harold Chee and Chris West; I was excited to read a book by a Chinese for foreign businesspeople. Unfortunately it’s of little or no value as a guide to China. It serves as more a soapbox for Mr. Chee’s anti-Western Racism and stereo-types. Skip this book.
• Seach for Modern China, The—Jonathan Spence; the best history of modern China available. A MUST READ.
• The New Chinese Empire, And What it Means for the United States—Ross Terrill; Winner of the LA Times Book Prize, it clearly and with great detail explains where China is headed and how to become a part of that future. Very good, if not overly optimistic.
• The Rape of Nanjing—Iris Chan. This book will make you vomit—it’s that good. It will make clear why the Chinese hate the Japanese still. A must read for anyone trying to understand the current Chinese psyche.
• Three Billion New Capitalists—Clyde Prestowitz. Very similar to “The World is Flat” but without all of the leftist political prescriptions. It does paint the same very bleak picture for the future of the US though.
• Tiananmen Papers, The—Zhang Liang, et al; Insider details about the Chinese government’s decisions leading up to the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. A very interesting look into the mindset of Chinese leadership—I liked the psychology much more than the history.
• Wild Swans—Jung Chang; a very emotional and personal history of three generations of Chinese women in China during the first 30 years of the “new China.” Another book that everyone who comes to China reads—this one is worth it though.
• Will the Boat Sink the Water?—Chen Guidi and Wu Chuntao. A FANTASTIC look at the reality of the Chinese country side and the peasants’ problems with agriculture, government, poverty, taxes and opportunity. Originally written in Chinese and since translated, it was banned in China. Totally corroborates any and all corruption stories you’ve ever heard.

Tags: Book Reviews by david
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